Inhomogeneous Poisson Process : Exercises

Introduction

The questions below all involve the inhomogeneous Poisson Process in some way. Remember that the main difference between an inhomogeneous Poisson Process and a Poisson process is that in an inhomogeneous Poisson Process the average rate of arrivals is allowed to vary with time. This fact ensures that the probability that $n$ events have occured by time $t$ is given by the following equation: $$ p_n(t) = \frac{(\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t')^n}{n!} e^{-\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t'} $$

Example problems

Click on the problems to reveal the solution

Problem 1

The question tells us that the texts arrive according to an inhomogeneous Poisson process. We therefore know from the formula given above that the probability that no events have occured by time $t$ is given by: $$ p_0(t) = \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t'\right) $$ The probability that the first event will have occured by time $t$ - the cumulative probability distribution function for the random variable $T_1$ - is thus: $$ P(T_1 \le t ) = 1 - \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t'\right) $$ We can get the probability density function for this random variable $T_1$ by differentiating the above equation with respect to $t$: $$ f_{T_1}(t) = \frac{ \textrm{d} P(T_1 \le t ) }{\textrm{d}t} = \lambda(t) \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t'\right) $$ We can thus write the expectation of $T_1$, which is the quantity we are asked to calculate in the question as follows: $$ \mathbb{E}(T_1) =\int_0^\infty t f_{T_1}(t) \textrm{d}t = \int_0^\infty t \lambda(t) \exp\left( - \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \textrm{d}t $$ Lets begin finding this expectation by performing the integral that currently appears in the exponential term: $$ \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' = \int_0^t \frac{t'}{1+t'} \textrm{d}t' $$ We can do the integration here by parts i.e. by using: $$ \int v \frac{\textrm{d}u}{\textrm{d}x} \textrm{d}x = uv - \int u \frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}x} \textrm{d}x $$ In this case we will set: $$ u = t \qquad \rightarrow \qquad \frac{\textrm{d}u}{\textrm{d}t} = 1 \qquad \textrm{and} \qquad \frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}t} = \frac{1}{1+t} \qquad \rightarrow \qquad v = \ln( 1+ t) $$ When all this is inserted into the integration by parts formula above we find that: $$ \begin{aligned} \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' & = [ t' \ln(1+t')]_0^t - \int_0^t \ln( 1+ t' ) \textrm{d}t' \\ & = t\ln(1+t) - [ ( 1 + t' ) \ln(1 + t' ) - (1 + t' )]_0^t \\ & = t\ln(1+t) - \ln(1+t) + t\ln(1+t) + (1+t) + \ln(1) - 1 \\ & = -\ln(1+t) + t \end{aligned} $$ Here notice that we find the indefinite integral of $\ln(1+t')$ by using a combination of integration by subtitution and integration by parts. We begin by making the substitution $y=1+t'$. We are thus left to solve the integral $\int \ln(y) \textrm{d}y$, which we do by parts. In this case we set $u=\ln(y)$ and $\frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}y}=1$. When the integration is completed and once we substitute y=1+t' into the final result we find the result I have used above: $\int \ln(1+t') \textrm{d}t' = (1+t')\ln(1+t') - (1+t') + C$

Substituing $\int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t'=-\ln(1+t) + t$ into the expression for $\mathbb{E}(T_1)$ above we finally get to: $$ \begin{aligned} \mathbb{E}(T_1) & = \int_0^\infty t \frac{t}{1+t} \exp\left( \ln(1+t) - t \right) \textrm{d}t \\ & = \int_0^\infty t \frac{t}{1+t} e^{\ln(1+t)} e^{-t} \textrm{d}t \\ & = \int_0^\infty t^2 \frac{1+t}{1+t} e^{-t} \textrm{d}t \\ & = \int_0^\infty t^2 e^{-t} \textrm{d}t = 2! \end{aligned} $$ We therefore find that the expected time of arrival is 2 hours after 12:00 i.e. 14:00.

Problem 2

To find the solution to this problem we need to find the probability that each team has scored exactly one goal during 45 minutes of play. We can do this using the $n=1$ case of the equation given at the top of this page. In other words, we need to calculate: $$ P\{N(t)=1\} = \left( \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d}t' \right) \exp\left( - \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d}t' \right) $$ with each of the two expressions for the rate that were given in the question. As these two rate expressions have similar functional forms lets start by finding the following integral: $$ \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d}t' = p\int_0^t \frac{t'}{10+t'} \textrm{d}t' $$ We can find this integral by doing integration by parts i.e. by using: $$ \int v \frac{\textrm{d}u}{\textrm{d}x} \textrm{d}x = uv - \int u \frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}x} \textrm{d}x $$ and in this case setting: $$ v = t \qquad \rightarrow \qquad \frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}t} = 1 \qquad \frac{\textrm{d}u}{\textrm{d}t} = \frac{1}{10+t} \qquad \rightarrow \qquad u = \ln(t+10) $$ When this information is inserted into the integration by parts equation we find that: $$ \begin{aligned} \int_0^t \frac{t'}{10+t'} \textrm{d}t' & = \left[ t' \ln(t'+10) \right]_0^t - \int_0^t \ln(t+10) \textrm{d}t \\ & = t\ln(t+10) - [ (t'+10)\ln(t'+10) - t']_0^t \\ & = t\ln(t+10) - (t+10)\ln(t+10) + t + 10\ln(10) \\ & = 10\ln(10) - 10\ln(t+10) + t \end{aligned} $$ Notice that we have used the fact that: $\int \ln(10+t') \textrm{d}t' = (10+t')\ln(10+t') - (10+t') + C$ (The solution of a similar indefinite integral was discussed in the solution to question 1). Now as the first half lasts for 45 minutes the above integral is thus simply equal to: $$ 10\ln(10) - 10\ln(t+10) + t = 10\ln(10) + 10\ln(55) = 27.952 $$ Next notice that the $\lambda_1(t)$ and $\lambda_2(t)$ functions that were given in the question are equal to the integrand of the integral above multiplied by a constant. We can thus calculate the probability that each of the teams scores one goal during the first half using the equation at the top of this solution as shown below: $$ \begin{aligned} \int_0^t \lambda_1(t') \textrm{d}t' & = 0.02 \times 27.952 \qquad \therefore \qquad P(N_1=1) = 0.02 \times 27.952 \times \exp(- 0.02 \times 27.952 ) = 0.56 \exp(-0.56 ) = 0.32 \\ \int_0^t \lambda_2(t') \textrm{d}t' & = 0.04 \times 27.952 \qquad \therefore \qquad P(N_2=1) = 0.04 \times 27.952 \times \exp(- 0.04 \times 27.952 ) = 1.118 \exp(-1.118 ) = 0.37 \\ \end{aligned} $$ To work out the probability that the score is one-one we need to calculate the probability that both teams score exactly one goal. We are told in the question that the inhomogeneous Poisson processes that determine the rate at which each team scores goals are independent. We can thus calculate the probability that the two teams score one goal each by taking the product of the two probilities calculated above as shown below: $$ \textrm{Total probability:} \quad 0.32\times0.37 = 0.12 $$

Problem 3

The hazard rate discussed in the question is the rate that should appear in the inhomogeneous Poisson process. Once again we are interested in probability that the event does not happen before time $t$, which we can determine using the equation for the probability of having $n$ events by time $t$ that was given at the top of this page. We can thus write that the probability the default will not have occured by time $t$ as: $$ S_T(t) = P(T>t) = \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d}t' \right) $$ Inserting the hazard rate that we are given in the question into the integral above we find that: $$ S_T(t) = \exp\left(-\int_0^t (a + bt) \textrm{d}t' \right) = \exp\left( - at - \frac{1}{2}bt^2 \right) $$ We now want to work out the expected value for the time of the default. As in question one above we do by first noting that the probability that the first event will have occured by time $t$ - the cumulative probability distribution function for the random variable $T$ - is given by: $$ P(T \le t ) = 1 - S_T(t) = 1 - \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t'\right) $$ We can get the probability density function for this random variable $T$ by differentiating the above equation with respect to $t$: $$ f_{T}(t) = \frac{ \textrm{d} P(T \le t ) }{\textrm{d}t} = \lambda(t) \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t) \textrm{d}t'\right) $$ We can thus write the expectation of $T$, which is the quantity we are asked to calculate in the question as follows: $$ \mathbb{E}(T) =\int_0^\infty t f_{T}(t) \textrm{d}t = \int_0^\infty t \lambda(t) \exp\left( - \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \textrm{d}t $$ It is interesting to note at this stage that we can simplify the above expression by doing a little integration by parts. Remember that the intetration by parts formula tells us that: $$ \int v \frac{\textrm{d}u}{\textrm{d}x} \textrm{d}x = uv - \int u \frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}x} \textrm{d}x $$ In this case we will set: $$ u = t \qquad \rightarrow \qquad \frac{\textrm{d}u}{\textrm{d}t} = 1 \qquad \textrm{and} \qquad \frac{\textrm{d}v}{\textrm{d}t} = \lambda(t) \exp\left(- \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \qquad \rightarrow \qquad v = -\exp\left(- \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) $$ Inserting these results into the above formula we find that: $$ \begin{aligned} \int_0^\infty t \lambda(t) \exp\left( - \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \textrm{d}t & = \left[ -t\exp\left(- \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \right]_0^\infty + \int_0^\infty \exp\left(- \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \textrm{d}t \\ & = \int_0^\infty \exp\left(- \int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d} t' \right) \textrm{d}t \end{aligned} $$ as the term in bracekts in the first line here is equal to zero at both limits if $\lambda(t)$ is a monotonically increasing function as it is in this question. We will thus find the expectation in this question by solving this slightly simpler looking integral as shown below: $$ \mathbb{E}(T) = \int_0^\infty \exp\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(t') \textrm{d}t'\right) \textrm{d}t = \int_0^\infty \exp\left(-at - \frac{1}{2} bt^2 \right) \textrm{d}t $$ Lets simplify the expression inside the expoential here by completing the square: $$ -at-\frac{1}{2} bt^2 = -\frac{1}{2}\left(\sqrt{b}t + \frac{a}{\sqrt{b}} \right)^2 + \frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{a}{\sqrt{b}}\right)^2 $$ When this is inserted into the integral we find: $$ \mathbb{E}(T) = \int_0^\infty \exp\left[ -\frac{\left(\sqrt{b}t + \frac{a}{\sqrt{b}} \right)^2}{2} + \frac{a^2}{2b} \right] \textrm{d}t = \exp\left(\frac{a^2}{2b}\right) \int_0^\infty \exp\left[ -\frac{1}{2}\left(\sqrt{b}t + \frac{a}{\sqrt{b}} \right)^2 \right] \textrm{d}t $$ We can solve the remaining integral here by making the substitution $y=\sqrt{b}t + \frac{a}{\sqrt{b}}$. Remembering that $\frac{\textrm{d}y}{\textrm{d}t} = \frac{1}{\sqrt{b}}$ here we find that the integral we need to solve once this substitution is made is: $$ \mathbb{E}(T) = \frac{\exp\left(\frac{a^2}{2b}\right)}{\sqrt{b}} \int_{a/\sqrt{b}}^\infty \exp\left( - \frac{y^2}{2} \right) \textrm{d}y $$ To conclude we notice that $\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}} \int_{a/\sqrt{b}}^\infty \exp\left( - \frac{y^2}{2} \right) \textrm{d}y = 1 - \Phi\left(\frac{a}{\sqrt{b}}\right)$, where $\Phi(x)$ is the cumulative probability distribution function for a Normal distribution. We can thus write: $$ \mathbb{E}(T) = \exp\left(\frac{a^2}{2b}\right) \sqrt{\frac{2\pi}{b}} \left[ 1 - \Phi\left(\frac{a}{\sqrt{b}}\right) \right] $$

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Email: g.tribello@qub.ac.uk
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