Geometric random variable : Exercises

Introduction

The problems below all involve the geometric random variable in some way. Remember that this random variable is used to model the number of Bernoulli trials you have to perform before you get a positive result and that the probability mass function for this random variable is: $$ f_X(x) = (1-p)^{x-1} p $$

Example problems

Click on the problems to reveal the solution

In this question we are being asked to derive the probability mass function for the geometric random variable. This mass function is given at the top of this page in the short description of the geometric random variable. One way to answer this question would thus be to explain why the experiment described in the question can be modelled using a geometric random variable. Another way involves carefully thinking about the process of tossing a coin till you get a head. Lets suppose that you want the probability that you get a head on the first flip. This is given by: $$ P(X=1) = p $$ which we are told in the question. Now suppose that you want the first head on the second flip. This implies that the first toss of the coin gives tails. The probability of getting tails on this first flip is $(1-p)$ and the probability of getting heads on the second flip is $p$. Furthermore, the outcome of any toss of the coin is independent of any other and as such we can get the probability of both these events by multiplying. As such: $$ P(X=2) = (1-p)p $$ Now suppose we want the probability that $X=3$. To get $X=3$ we need to get a tails, followed by tails again followed by heads. As these three outcomes are indepdent the probability of this sequence is: $$ P(X=3) = (1-p)^2 p $$ We can see the following pattern emerging here: $$ P(X=n) = (1-p)^{n-1} p $$ and hopefully it is clear why from the logic given in the previous paragraphs. In the second part of the question we are asked to prove that: $$ \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(X=n) = 1 $$ In this question this means manipulating the following series as follows $$ \sum_{n=1}^\infty (1-p)^{n-1} p = p \sum_{n=1}^\infty (1-p)^{n-1} $$ We now replace $n$ in the summation with $k=n-1$. This gives us: $$ p \sum_{n=1}^\infty (1-p)^{n-1} = p \sum_{k=0}^\infty (1-p)^{k} $$ Notice the change in the lower limit for the summation here. We now exploit the fact that the summation here is a geometric series and note that: $$ \sum_{k=0}^\infty (1-p)^{k} = \frac{1}{1-(1-p)} \qquad \textrm{if} \quad (1-p)<1 $$ The last inequality here, $(1-p)<1$, most definitely holds (as $p$ is a probability) so we can thus write: $$ p \sum_{k=0}^\infty (1-p)^{k} = p \frac{1}{1-(1-p)} = \frac{p}{p} = 1 $$
Start by considering the probability player $J_i$ wins in the first round $P_1(J_i)$. The random variable in this question follows a geometric distribution so the probability that the $J_i$th player wins during the first round is: $$ P_1( J_i ) = \left( \frac{5}{6}\right)^{i-1} \frac{1}{6} $$ The probability player $J_i$ wins during the second round is: $$ P_2( J_i ) = \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^n \left( \frac{5}{6}\right)^{i-1} \frac{1}{6} $$ The factor of $\left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^n$ appears here as for player $J_i$ to win on the second round everyone must loose during the first round. We can generalise this insight and write the probability that player $J_i$ wins during the $k$th round as: $$ P_k( J_i ) = \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{kn} \left( \frac{5}{6}\right)^{i-1} \frac{1}{6} $$ The total probability player $J_i$ wins is sum of probability player $J_i$ wins in all rounds. In other words, the total probabiliy that player $J$ wins is given by: $$ P(J_i) = P_1(J_i) + P_2(J_i) + P_3(J_i) + \dots = \sum_{k=0}^\infty P_k(J_i) $$ Inserting the information from previous parts into this expression and doing do some manipulations involving the geometric series gets us to the final result $$ P(J_i) = \sum_{k=0}^\infty \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{kn} \left( \frac{5}{6}\right)^{i-1} \frac{1}{6} = \left(\frac{1}{6} \right) \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{i-1} \sum_{k=0}^\infty \left( \frac{5}{6}\right)^{kn} = \frac{ \left(\frac{1}{6} \right) \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{i-1} }{ 1 - \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^n } $$

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School of Mathematics and Physics,
Queen's University Belfast,
Belfast,
BT7 1NN

Email: g.tribello@qub.ac.uk
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